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决策者过度自信对运作系统应急能力恢复的影响研究
作者：郝云宏 殷西乐 包兴
来源：《软科学》2014年第12期
摘要：考虑应急情景下决策者对可获外部支援能力过度自信，借鉴报童理论构建了运作系统应急能力恢复决策模型，分析了过度自信对系统能力恢复决策及应急绩效的影响。结论表明：决策者的过度自信偏差会损害系统应急绩效，且其对能力恢复决策的影响与系统面临的缺货惩罚、能力修复成本水平有关。另外，过度自信偏差会削弱监管部门的惩罚或补贴等措施对系统能力恢复的正向刺激效果，从而加大了运作系统的应急监管难度。
关键词：应急管理；行为运作；过度自信
中图分类号：F273 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001-8409（2014）12-0060-05
How Overconfidence Bias Affects the Capacity
Management of Operation System under Disruption
HAO Yunhong1，YIN Xile1，BAO Xing2
（1. School of Business Administration，Zhejiang Gongshang University，Hangzhou 310018；
2.The Communist Party School of Zhejiang Province，Hangzhou 310018）
Abstract：This paper presents a mathematic model based on newsvendor theory in order to find out how overconfidence bias result in the deviation between the practice and ideal optimal solution. Conclusions drawn in our research show that：overconfidence bias can damage system disruption performance ；overconfidence will lead to inadequate recovery capability or excessive recovery
capability based on the level of shortage punishment；regulators can take penalty or subsidy measures to drive operation system restore damaged capacity more positively，but this effect will be weakened by decision makers overconfidence bias.
Key words：disruption management；behavioral operation management；overconfidence 引言
龙源期刊网 http://www.qikan.com.cn
决策者过度自信对运作系统应急能力恢复的影响研究
作者：郝云宏 殷西乐 包兴
来源：《软科学》2014年第12期
摘要：考虑应急情景下决策者对可获外部支援能力过度自信，借鉴报童理论构建了运作系统应急能力恢复决策模型，分析了过度自信对系统能力恢复决策及应急绩效的影响。结论表明：决策者的过度自信偏差会损害系统应急绩效，且其对能力恢复决策的影响与系统面临的缺货惩罚、能力修复成本水平有关。另外，过度自信偏差会削弱监管部门的惩罚或补贴等措施对系统能力恢复的正向刺激效果，从而加大了运作系统的应急监管难度。
关键词：应急管理；行为运作；过度自信
中图分类号：F273 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1001-8409（2014）12-0060-05
How Overconfidence Bias Affects the Capacity
Management of Operation System under Disruption
HAO Yunhong1，YIN Xile1，BAO Xing2
（1. School of Business Administration，Zhejiang Gongshang University，Hangzhou 310018；
2.The Communist Party School of Zhejiang Province，Hangzhou 310018）
Abstract：This paper presents a mathematic model based on newsvendor theory in order to find out how overconfidence bias result in the deviation between the practice and ideal optimal solution. Conclusions drawn in our research show that：overconfidence bias can damage system disruption performance ；overconfidence will lead to inadequate recovery capability or excessive recovery
capability based on the level of shortage punishment；regulators can take penalty or subsidy measures to drive operation system restore damaged capacity more positively，but this effect will be weakened by decision makers overconfidence bias.
Key words：disruption management；behavioral operation management；overconfidence 引言