当今世界的十大定律
长尾理论和帕累托定律让我联想到前段时间我在《福布斯》杂志上看到的一篇文章，讲述的是当今世界的 十大定律。凑巧的是，我在新华网上看到了这篇文章的中译文。译文翻译的不是特别好，但要让我自己来 翻，估计也就这个水平了。贴在这里，以备今后查考。
Digital Rules Ten Laws of the Modern World Rich Karlgaard, 05.09.05, 12:00 AM ET Moore's Law. Listen to a billionaire explain why an understanding of Moore's Law is a key to unlocking business riches. Don Valentine founded Sequoia Capital in 1972 and presided over early investments in Apple, Electronic Arts, Cisco, Yahoo and Google. He once told me the secret to his success: "That's easy. I just follow Moore's Law and make a few guesses about its consequences." This April marked the 40th anniversary of Gordon Moore's famous dictum. In 1965 Moore (he cofounded Intel three years later) noted that components on silicon chips were doubling every year. In 1975 he amended that to every two years. Today Moore's Law has transcended silicon chips. It has become a way of saying that all digital stuff, from PCs to cell phones to music players, get twice as good every 18 to 24 months--at the same price point. Projecting from Moore's Law, venture capitalist Valentine saw a future of personal computers, games, routers and search engines. Now, go project! 1、摩尔定律：让我们一同来倾听一位亿万富翁对于摩尔定律的感悟。风险投资公司 Sequoia Capital 的缔 造者唐瓦伦丁将摩尔定律视为商务运作的关键所在。他的公司曾向苹果、EA、思科、雅虎以及 Google 等 多家高科技公司进行投资。在谈到自己的成功秘诀的时候，他坦率地表示：“十分简单，我只是遵从摩尔 定律，并且对随之而来的结果进行一些猜测而已。” 今年的 4 月份正好是摩尔定律的 40 周年纪念。1965 年，戈登摩尔（3 年之后他亲自参与了英特尔公司的建立）首次提出：硅芯片上的晶体管数量将会以每 年一倍的速度翻番。到了 1975 年，摩尔先生将一年的周期改为了两年，而摩尔定律从那以后一直延续到今 天，成为芯片业发展的圣经。然而随着时间推移，摩尔定律适用的范围已经超越了单纯的芯片，从个人电 脑到手机产品，再到音乐播放器，几乎任何与高科技沾边的产品都适用于摩尔定律，在保持售价不变的前 提下，产品性能翻番的周期也逐渐演变成为了 18 到 24 个月。正是通过对于摩尔定律的信任，唐瓦伦丁 在个人电脑、游戏、以及搜索引擎等不同领域都取得了成功。
The Back Side of Moore's Law. This one says that digital stuff gets 30% to 40% cheaper every year--at the same performance point. The back side of Moore's Law is why your $299 Treo 650 is as powerful as a $3,500 Compaq PC was in 1988. It's why hundr
eds of millions of Chinese and Indians now own their personal portals to the global economy. 2、摩尔定律边际定律：此条定律表示，在保持同等性能的前提下，数字产品的售价以每年 30％到 40％的 幅度下滑。这条定律也可以解释为何用户手中价值 299 美元的 Treo 650 牌电脑在性能方面可以媲美 1988 年售价达到 3500 美元的康柏电脑产品。
Andy and Bill's Law. The origin of this was a funny one-liner told at computer conferences in the 1990s. It went like this: "What Andy giveth, Bill taketh away." It meant that every time Andy Grove (then CEO of Intel) brought a new chip to market, Bill Gates (then CEO of Microsoft) would 1
upgrade his software and soak up the new chip's power. But beyond the laugh, there's deep truth. Moore's Law constantly enables new software. Often the new software is just an incremental improvement. But every few years the world gets a wild breakthrough--graphic computing in the 1980s, Web browsers in the 1990s, fast search engines today. Next? Surely something amazing. 3、安迪比尔定律：在上个世纪 90 年代的一次电脑大会上，有人表示：“安迪提供什么，比尔拿走什么。” 换句话说，英特尔公司总裁安迪格罗夫一旦向市场推广了一种新型芯片产品，微软 CEO 比尔盖茨就会及 时地升级自己的软件产品，吸收新型芯片的高性能。摩尔定律的效能保证了新型软件不断出现在市场上， 然而通常新软件只不过是表面的提升而已，不过随着硬件技术的提升，软件技术也会在某一时刻达到飞跃 的效果，例如上世纪 80 年代的图形计算和上世纪 90 年代的网络浏览，今天的搜索引擎，下一个该是什么 呢？毫无疑问它会让我们大吃一惊。
Metcalfe's Law. This one's named after Robert Metcalfe, the inventor of the computer networking protocol Ethernet. Metcalfe said the usefulness of a network improves by the square of the number of nodes on the network. Translation: The Internet, like telephones, grows more valuable as more join in. This is how Ebay grew so profitable so fast. 4、梅特卡夫定律：这条定律是用以太网络的发明人罗伯特梅特卡夫的名字命名的。定律表示，网络的 有用性(价值)随着用户数量的平方数增加而增加。换句话说，某种网络，比如电话的价值随着使用用户数 量的增加而增加。现在如日中天的电子商务网站 eBay 就是最好的例证。
Gilder's Law: Winner's Waste. The futurist George Gilder wrote about this a few years ago in Winner's a Forbes publication. The best business models, he said, waste the era's cheapest resources in order to conserve the era's most expensive resources. When steam became cheaper than horses, the smartest businesses used steam and spared horses. Today the cheapest resources are computer power and bandwidth. Both are getting cheaper by the year (at the pace of
Moore's Law). Google is a successful business because it wastes computer power--it has some 120,000 servers powering its search engine--while it conserves its dearest resource, people. Google has fewer than 3,500 employees, yet it generates $5 billion in (current run rate) sales. 5、吉尔德定律：胜利者浪费定律。数字时代 3 大思想家之一的乔治吉尔德在《福布斯》创刊之前的几 年就曾经提出了著名的吉尔德定律。他说，最为成功的商业运作模式是价格最低的资源将会被尽可能地耗 费，以此来保存最昂贵的资源。在蒸气机出现的时代，因为蒸气机的成本已经低于当时传统的运输工具马 匹，因此聪明的商人开始了蒸气机的使用。如今最为廉价的资源就是电脑以及网络带宽资源，并且随着摩 尔定律的生效，两者的价格还呈现出飞速的下滑趋势。Google 公司就是一个很好的例子，公司服务器产品 达到了大约 12 万台，支撑起了搜索引擎的整个网络架构，然而在成本相对较高的人力资源方面 Google 公 司却显得十分吝啬，如今公司的员工总数还不到 3500 人，但就是这样一个公司每年的销量却达到了 50 亿 美元。
Ricardo's Law. The more transparent an economy becomes, the more David Ricardo's 19th-century law of comparative advantage rules the day. Then came the commercial Internet, the greatest window into comparative advantage ever invented. Which means if your firm's price-value proposition is lousy, too bad. The world knows. 6、李嘉图定律：经济形式越明朗，19 世纪英国经济学家大卫李嘉图提出的比较优势定律的作用就越明 显。商务互联网的出现就是一个很好的例子，这也是自从比较优势定律被提出以来最大的一个“窗口”。 当然这也意味着，如果贵公司的表现实在糟糕的话，整个世界都会知道的。 2
Wriston's Law. This is named after the late Walter Wriston, a giant of banking and finance. In his 1992 book, The Twilight of Sovereignty, Wriston predicted the rise of electronic networks and their chief effect. He said capital (meaning both money and ideas) when freed to travel at the speed of light "will go where it is wanted, stay where it is well-treated.…" By applying Wriston's Law of capital and talent flow, you can predict the fortunes of countries and companies. 7、里斯顿定律：这条定律的名称来自已故的沃尔特里斯顿。一位银行金融界的巨头。在 1992 年里斯顿 一本名为《the twilight of sovereignty》的书中，他就曾经预言了电子网络的崛起以及随之而来的主要 影响。里斯顿表示，如果被给予自由和光的速度，资本（包括金钱和构想）将去向它想去的地方，留在它 被很好对待的地方。如果很好地理解了里斯顿定律，我们将可以很好地预测出未来国家和公司的兴衰大势。 The Laffer Curve. In the
1970s the young economist Arthur Laffer proposed a wild idea. Cut taxes at the margin, on income and capital, and you'll get more tax revenue, not less. Laffer reasoned that lower taxes would beckon risk capital out of hiding. Businesses and people would become more productive. The pie would grow. Application of the Laffer Curve is why the U.S. boomed in the 1980s and 1990s, why India is rocking now and why eastern Europe will outperform western Europe. 8、拉夫尔曲线定律：上世纪 70 年代，年轻的经济学家亚瑟拉夫尔提出了这一创造性的定律。在某些情 况下，随着收取税金比率的降低，您可以得到的税金总额却相反会增加。这条定律表明，税率的降低可以 使得业务或者工作人员变得更有生产力，进而商务规模将会进一步扩大。拉夫尔定律很好地解释了上世纪 80 年代到 90 年代美国经济的飞速增长，以及如今印度的繁荣，东欧表现超越西欧等现象。 Drucker's Law. Odd as it seems, you will achieve the greatest results in business and career if you drop the word "achievement" from your vocabulary. Replace it with "contribution," says the great management guru Peter Drucker. Contribution puts the focus where it should be--on your customers, employees and shareholders. 9、杜拉克定律：听起来也许十分奇怪，不过如果从你的字典中将“成就”这个字眼剔除，换以“贡献”的 话，那么您最终可以在您的事业中取得真正的“成就”。这番话来自于管理奇才彼得杜拉克先生。对于 “贡献”的追求可以保证精力被投放在最需要的地方，比如您的用户、雇员或者股东。 Ogilvy's Law. David Ogilvy gets my vote as the greatest advertising mind of the 20th century. The founder of Ogilvy & Mather (now part of WPP) left a rich legacy of ideas in his books, my favorite being Ogilvy on Advertising. Ogilvy wrote that whenever someone was appointed to head an office of O&M, he would give the manager a Russian nesting doll. These dolls open in the middle to reveal a smaller doll, which opens in the middle to reveal a yet smaller doll … and so on. Inside the smallest doll would be a note from Ogilvy. It read: "If each of us hires people who are smaller than we are, we shall become a company of dwarfs. But if each of us hires people who are bigger than we are, we shall become a company of giants." Ogilvy knew in the 1950s that people make or break businesses. It was true then; it's truer today.
10、奥格威定律：如果进行评选的话，我会选戴维奥格威为 20 世纪最伟大的广告创意专家。奥格威是 Ogilvy&Mather 公司的创造者（如今 WPP 公司的一部分），他曾经撰写了一本名为《Ogilvy on Adertising》 的著作。在书中，奥格威先生写到：在任何一位 O&M 公司任职的领导都会接到他送出的一个俄罗斯嵌套娃
3
娃，在打开嵌套娃娃时他们会发现其中又是
一个小一些的嵌套娃娃，就这样一层一层，在最后一个很小的 娃娃里面是一张纸条，上边写着“如果我们只是雇佣那些不如我们的雇员，公司将逐渐成为侏儒，不过如 果我们雇佣的员工总是要超越我们本身，有朝一日公司会成为巨人。”早在上个世纪 50 年代的时候，奥格 威先生就理解了商务以人为本的道理，而随着时间的推移，这条道理显得越来越正确。
4
当今世界的十大定律
长尾理论和帕累托定律让我联想到前段时间我在《福布斯》杂志上看到的一篇文章，讲述的是当今世界的 十大定律。凑巧的是，我在新华网上看到了这篇文章的中译文。译文翻译的不是特别好，但要让我自己来 翻，估计也就这个水平了。贴在这里，以备今后查考。
Digital Rules Ten Laws of the Modern World Rich Karlgaard, 05.09.05, 12:00 AM ET Moore's Law. Listen to a billionaire explain why an understanding of Moore's Law is a key to unlocking business riches. Don Valentine founded Sequoia Capital in 1972 and presided over early investments in Apple, Electronic Arts, Cisco, Yahoo and Google. He once told me the secret to his success: "That's easy. I just follow Moore's Law and make a few guesses about its consequences." This April marked the 40th anniversary of Gordon Moore's famous dictum. In 1965 Moore (he cofounded Intel three years later) noted that components on silicon chips were doubling every year. In 1975 he amended that to every two years. Today Moore's Law has transcended silicon chips. It has become a way of saying that all digital stuff, from PCs to cell phones to music players, get twice as good every 18 to 24 months--at the same price point. Projecting from Moore's Law, venture capitalist Valentine saw a future of personal computers, games, routers and search engines. Now, go project! 1、摩尔定律：让我们一同来倾听一位亿万富翁对于摩尔定律的感悟。风险投资公司 Sequoia Capital 的缔 造者唐瓦伦丁将摩尔定律视为商务运作的关键所在。他的公司曾向苹果、EA、思科、雅虎以及 Google 等 多家高科技公司进行投资。在谈到自己的成功秘诀的时候，他坦率地表示：“十分简单，我只是遵从摩尔 定律，并且对随之而来的结果进行一些猜测而已。” 今年的 4 月份正好是摩尔定律的 40 周年纪念。1965 年，戈登摩尔（3 年之后他亲自参与了英特尔公司的建立）首次提出：硅芯片上的晶体管数量将会以每 年一倍的速度翻番。到了 1975 年，摩尔先生将一年的周期改为了两年，而摩尔定律从那以后一直延续到今 天，成为芯片业发展的圣经。然而随着时间推移，摩尔定律适用的范围已经超越了单纯的芯片，从个人电 脑到手机产品，再到音乐播放器，几乎任何与高科技沾边的产品都适用于摩尔定律，在保持售价不变的前 提下，产品性能翻番的周期也逐渐演变成为了 18 到 24 个月。正是通过对于摩尔定律的信任，唐瓦伦丁 在个人电脑、游戏、以及搜索引擎等不同领域都取得了成功。
The Back Side of Moore's Law. This one says that digital stuff gets 30% to 40% cheaper every year--at the same performance point. The back side of Moore's Law is why your $299 Treo 650 is as powerful as a $3,500 Compaq PC was in 1988. It's why hundr
eds of millions of Chinese and Indians now own their personal portals to the global economy. 2、摩尔定律边际定律：此条定律表示，在保持同等性能的前提下，数字产品的售价以每年 30％到 40％的 幅度下滑。这条定律也可以解释为何用户手中价值 299 美元的 Treo 650 牌电脑在性能方面可以媲美 1988 年售价达到 3500 美元的康柏电脑产品。
Andy and Bill's Law. The origin of this was a funny one-liner told at computer conferences in the 1990s. It went like this: "What Andy giveth, Bill taketh away." It meant that every time Andy Grove (then CEO of Intel) brought a new chip to market, Bill Gates (then CEO of Microsoft) would 1
upgrade his software and soak up the new chip's power. But beyond the laugh, there's deep truth. Moore's Law constantly enables new software. Often the new software is just an incremental improvement. But every few years the world gets a wild breakthrough--graphic computing in the 1980s, Web browsers in the 1990s, fast search engines today. Next? Surely something amazing. 3、安迪比尔定律：在上个世纪 90 年代的一次电脑大会上，有人表示：“安迪提供什么，比尔拿走什么。” 换句话说，英特尔公司总裁安迪格罗夫一旦向市场推广了一种新型芯片产品，微软 CEO 比尔盖茨就会及 时地升级自己的软件产品，吸收新型芯片的高性能。摩尔定律的效能保证了新型软件不断出现在市场上， 然而通常新软件只不过是表面的提升而已，不过随着硬件技术的提升，软件技术也会在某一时刻达到飞跃 的效果，例如上世纪 80 年代的图形计算和上世纪 90 年代的网络浏览，今天的搜索引擎，下一个该是什么 呢？毫无疑问它会让我们大吃一惊。
Metcalfe's Law. This one's named after Robert Metcalfe, the inventor of the computer networking protocol Ethernet. Metcalfe said the usefulness of a network improves by the square of the number of nodes on the network. Translation: The Internet, like telephones, grows more valuable as more join in. This is how Ebay grew so profitable so fast. 4、梅特卡夫定律：这条定律是用以太网络的发明人罗伯特梅特卡夫的名字命名的。定律表示，网络的 有用性(价值)随着用户数量的平方数增加而增加。换句话说，某种网络，比如电话的价值随着使用用户数 量的增加而增加。现在如日中天的电子商务网站 eBay 就是最好的例证。
Gilder's Law: Winner's Waste. The futurist George Gilder wrote about this a few years ago in Winner's a Forbes publication. The best business models, he said, waste the era's cheapest resources in order to conserve the era's most expensive resources. When steam became cheaper than horses, the smartest businesses used steam and spared horses. Today the cheapest resources are computer power and bandwidth. Both are getting cheaper by the year (at the pace of
Moore's Law). Google is a successful business because it wastes computer power--it has some 120,000 servers powering its search engine--while it conserves its dearest resource, people. Google has fewer than 3,500 employees, yet it generates $5 billion in (current run rate) sales. 5、吉尔德定律：胜利者浪费定律。数字时代 3 大思想家之一的乔治吉尔德在《福布斯》创刊之前的几 年就曾经提出了著名的吉尔德定律。他说，最为成功的商业运作模式是价格最低的资源将会被尽可能地耗 费，以此来保存最昂贵的资源。在蒸气机出现的时代，因为蒸气机的成本已经低于当时传统的运输工具马 匹，因此聪明的商人开始了蒸气机的使用。如今最为廉价的资源就是电脑以及网络带宽资源，并且随着摩 尔定律的生效，两者的价格还呈现出飞速的下滑趋势。Google 公司就是一个很好的例子，公司服务器产品 达到了大约 12 万台，支撑起了搜索引擎的整个网络架构，然而在成本相对较高的人力资源方面 Google 公 司却显得十分吝啬，如今公司的员工总数还不到 3500 人，但就是这样一个公司每年的销量却达到了 50 亿 美元。
Ricardo's Law. The more transparent an economy becomes, the more David Ricardo's 19th-century law of comparative advantage rules the day. Then came the commercial Internet, the greatest window into comparative advantage ever invented. Which means if your firm's price-value proposition is lousy, too bad. The world knows. 6、李嘉图定律：经济形式越明朗，19 世纪英国经济学家大卫李嘉图提出的比较优势定律的作用就越明 显。商务互联网的出现就是一个很好的例子，这也是自从比较优势定律被提出以来最大的一个“窗口”。 当然这也意味着，如果贵公司的表现实在糟糕的话，整个世界都会知道的。 2
Wriston's Law. This is named after the late Walter Wriston, a giant of banking and finance. In his 1992 book, The Twilight of Sovereignty, Wriston predicted the rise of electronic networks and their chief effect. He said capital (meaning both money and ideas) when freed to travel at the speed of light "will go where it is wanted, stay where it is well-treated.…" By applying Wriston's Law of capital and talent flow, you can predict the fortunes of countries and companies. 7、里斯顿定律：这条定律的名称来自已故的沃尔特里斯顿。一位银行金融界的巨头。在 1992 年里斯顿 一本名为《the twilight of sovereignty》的书中，他就曾经预言了电子网络的崛起以及随之而来的主要 影响。里斯顿表示，如果被给予自由和光的速度，资本（包括金钱和构想）将去向它想去的地方，留在它 被很好对待的地方。如果很好地理解了里斯顿定律，我们将可以很好地预测出未来国家和公司的兴衰大势。 The Laffer Curve. In the
1970s the young economist Arthur Laffer proposed a wild idea. Cut taxes at the margin, on income and capital, and you'll get more tax revenue, not less. Laffer reasoned that lower taxes would beckon risk capital out of hiding. Businesses and people would become more productive. The pie would grow. Application of the Laffer Curve is why the U.S. boomed in the 1980s and 1990s, why India is rocking now and why eastern Europe will outperform western Europe. 8、拉夫尔曲线定律：上世纪 70 年代，年轻的经济学家亚瑟拉夫尔提出了这一创造性的定律。在某些情 况下，随着收取税金比率的降低，您可以得到的税金总额却相反会增加。这条定律表明，税率的降低可以 使得业务或者工作人员变得更有生产力，进而商务规模将会进一步扩大。拉夫尔定律很好地解释了上世纪 80 年代到 90 年代美国经济的飞速增长，以及如今印度的繁荣，东欧表现超越西欧等现象。 Drucker's Law. Odd as it seems, you will achieve the greatest results in business and career if you drop the word "achievement" from your vocabulary. Replace it with "contribution," says the great management guru Peter Drucker. Contribution puts the focus where it should be--on your customers, employees and shareholders. 9、杜拉克定律：听起来也许十分奇怪，不过如果从你的字典中将“成就”这个字眼剔除，换以“贡献”的 话，那么您最终可以在您的事业中取得真正的“成就”。这番话来自于管理奇才彼得杜拉克先生。对于 “贡献”的追求可以保证精力被投放在最需要的地方，比如您的用户、雇员或者股东。 Ogilvy's Law. David Ogilvy gets my vote as the greatest advertising mind of the 20th century. The founder of Ogilvy & Mather (now part of WPP) left a rich legacy of ideas in his books, my favorite being Ogilvy on Advertising. Ogilvy wrote that whenever someone was appointed to head an office of O&M, he would give the manager a Russian nesting doll. These dolls open in the middle to reveal a smaller doll, which opens in the middle to reveal a yet smaller doll … and so on. Inside the smallest doll would be a note from Ogilvy. It read: "If each of us hires people who are smaller than we are, we shall become a company of dwarfs. But if each of us hires people who are bigger than we are, we shall become a company of giants." Ogilvy knew in the 1950s that people make or break businesses. It was true then; it's truer today.
10、奥格威定律：如果进行评选的话，我会选戴维奥格威为 20 世纪最伟大的广告创意专家。奥格威是 Ogilvy&Mather 公司的创造者（如今 WPP 公司的一部分），他曾经撰写了一本名为《Ogilvy on Adertising》 的著作。在书中，奥格威先生写到：在任何一位 O&M 公司任职的领导都会接到他送出的一个俄罗斯嵌套娃
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娃，在打开嵌套娃娃时他们会发现其中又是
一个小一些的嵌套娃娃，就这样一层一层，在最后一个很小的 娃娃里面是一张纸条，上边写着“如果我们只是雇佣那些不如我们的雇员，公司将逐渐成为侏儒，不过如 果我们雇佣的员工总是要超越我们本身，有朝一日公司会成为巨人。”早在上个世纪 50 年代的时候，奥格 威先生就理解了商务以人为本的道理，而随着时间的推移，这条道理显得越来越正确。
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