希腊很可能退出欧元区
ALEXIS TSIPRAS, a left-wing upstart who first won a parliamentary seat less than three years ago, could be the man who takes Greece out of the euro. His Syriza (Left Coalition) party, which unites a handful of fractious radical groups, massively increased its vote in the general election on May 6th, mostly at the expense of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok). It has gone from the fringes of politics to being the second-largest party in the Greek parliament.
希腊左翼政治新贵齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)或许就是把希腊带出欧元区的人。三年前，齐普拉斯首次赢得议会席位。希腊左翼激进联盟(SYRIZA)由多个激进党团组成，在希腊5月6日举行的大选中，该联盟的支持率大幅提高，而他们的大部分支持者此前都是泛希腊社会主义运动党的忠实拥趸。由此，昔日希腊政坛上的无名小卒一跃成为希腊议会第二大党。 The centre-right New Democracy was the largest party; Pasok, previously New
Democracy’s coalition partner, came in third place with just 13.2% of the vote, its worst election performance in over 30 years. Most important, parties which, like Syriza, are opposed to the austerity measures that Pasok and New Democracy had agreed to as the price of a €130 billion ($169 billion) international bail-out earlier this year ended up with 70% of the vote. This, the recent fall of a budget-cutting Dutch government and the election on May 6th of a Socialist president in France are seen by some in Greece and elsewhere as a widespread challenge to Europe’s politics of austerity.
中右翼新民主党(New Democracy)当选为希腊议会第一大党。新民主党的昔日盟友-泛希腊社会主义运动党以13.2%的支持率排名第三，这是该党30多年来的最差选举成绩。左翼激进联盟这些反对实行紧缩措施的党派赢得了70%的支持率，这才是关键所在。泛希腊社会主义运动党和新民主党都赞成紧缩政策，从而换取国际社会在今年初向希腊提供1300亿欧元（1690亿美元）的援助。希腊某些人士和国际社会都认为，希腊产生这样的选举结果，近期德国政府提议削减预算遭拒，以及5月6日法国产生社会党籍总统等一连串事件都折射出欧洲紧缩政策遭遇到了越来越强烈的抵制。
In a fissiparous display of national desperation the Greek electorate gave no party much support. New Democracy’s 18.9% won it 108 seats, thanks to a rule that gives the front-running party an extra 50 seats; Syriza’s 16.8% got it 52 seats, and Pasok got 41 seats. The other parties elected were the Communist Party; Independent Greeks, a right-wing splinter group; Democratic Left, a splinter from Syriza; and the neo-fascist Golden Dawn (see chart).
希腊举国上下笼罩在失望的情绪之中，显现出四分五裂的形势，没有出现一党独大的局面。按照希腊法律规定，领先的党派可以获得额外50个席位，因此新民主党赢得了108个议会席位，支持率为18.9%，左翼激进联盟以16.8%的支持率赢得了52席，而泛希腊社会主义运动党则获得了41席。其他在议会获得席位的党派包括共产党（Communist Party），右翼小党派独
立希腊人党（Independent Greeks）， 左翼激进联盟成员民主左翼党（Democratic Left）和新纳粹主义倾向的金色黎明党（Golden Dawn）。
The collapse of Pasok’s vote deprived the pro-euro conservatives and Socialists of an overall majority in parliament, giving Mr Tsipras (pictured) a turn at playing kingmaker during this week’s round of coalition negotiations. After New Democracy decided it could not put together a coalition, Mr Tsipras had a go, coming up on May 8th with a list of demands that seemed tailor-made for rejection by the two “mainstream” parties. Cheekily, he asked Antonis Samaras and Evangelos Venizelos, the conservative and Socialist leaders, to sign a “letter of repentance” reneging on a written pledge to Brussels that they would fully implement reforms. This and his other proposals were duly rejected. Another election now looms, probably on June 17th. It may also end in stalemate. That would surely lead to the terms of the bail-out being breached, and make an exit from the euro much more likely.
泛希腊社会主义运动党选举失利，导致了支持欧元的保守党-新民主党就和泛希腊社会主义运动党失去了议会多数席位，齐普拉斯（如图）也因此实现逆转，在本周进行的组建联盟谈判中作充当起了支配者的角色。新民主党宣布不与任何党派结成政治联盟，此举致使齐普拉斯计划受阻，但他很快就另选他途，在5月8日提出了一份清单，列出了各项要求，而他的目的似乎就是为了让两大“主流”党派对该清单说不。此外，他还大言不惭的要求保守党新民主党主席萨马拉斯(Antonis Samaras)和泛希腊社会主义运动党主席韦尼泽洛斯（Evangelos Venizelos）签署一份“悔改书”，推翻他们对布鲁塞尔做出的全面实施改的革书面承诺。包括这项要求在内的齐普拉斯所有提议都遭到了拒绝。6月17日还将举行新一轮议会选举，并很可能以失败告终。这无疑将使国际援助告吹，希腊也很可能就此退出欧元区。
Until that day of reckoning a caretaker government will run the country. Lucas Papademos, the technocrat prime minister, will stand down in favour of a senior state lawyer or judge. Mr Papademos pushed through enough reforms during his six-month tenure for Greece to receive most of its next €5.2 billion loan tranche this week, ensuring that salaries and pensions will be paid until June. He made virtually no progress, though, on restoring business confidence or attracting investors from abroad. The economy is in its fifth year of recession.
希腊看守政府将留守到正式结果出台之时。希腊总理帕帕季莫斯(Lucas Papademos)是一位技术人才，下台后将成为高级律师或法官。在为期六个月的总理任期内，帕帕季莫斯促成了多项改革，本周52亿欧元新贷款中的大部分已经到位，确保希腊在六月之前有足够的钱支付薪水和养老金。然而，帕帕季莫斯在重建商业信心及吸引国外投资方面却无所建树。希腊经济持续低迷已有五年之久。
希腊很可能退出欧元区(2)
Mr Tsipras, who organised sit-ins and protest marches at high school, still enjoys stirring up the political establishment. He has demanded that Greece formally abandon the “barbarous” bail-out programme; place its banks under state control; and set up an international committee to audit the public debt before declaring a moratorium on repayments. Mr Tsipras argues that Greece can reject the bail-out and also stay in the euro; pro-reform politicians call this “naive”. Any such idea is rejected outright in Berlin.
齐普拉斯组织高中生举行静坐和游行示威活动，以搅动希腊政坛为乐。他要求希腊正式放弃“外邦”的经济援助计划，将银行收归国有，设立国际委员会，在宣布延期偿还债务之前对公共债务进行审查。齐普拉斯称希腊可以在拒绝援助计划的同时仍然留在欧元区内，而支持改革的政客们则称此种说法“太天真”。柏林也绝无可能同意这种提议。
Left-of-centre Greeks voted for Syriza both to punish Pasok for impoverishing the country and because Syriza opposes reforms that would open up closed-shop
professions in a bid to make Greece more competitive. Syriza’s idealistic economic programme calls for providing students with free meals and doling out pensions equal to final salaries. Mr Tsipras says the state should hire 100,000 more workers to help reduce unemployment, now running at 21%.
中左翼希腊民众投票支持左翼激进联盟，一方面是对泛希腊社会主义运动党施以颜色，正是在他们把希腊一步步带向衰败，另一方面则在于左翼激进联盟反对改革。为了增加希腊的竞争力，有关改革将开放限制行业。按照左翼激进联盟的经济设想，学生们可以享受免费餐点，退休金与退休前的薪水持平。齐普拉斯表示，政府应增加10万名工人的就业岗位，来降低失业率。目前希腊的失业率为21%。
One more chance
新一轮议会选举
The June election will hinge on whether Mr Samaras and Mr Venizelos can persuade the 70% of Greeks who say that they want to stay in the euro that they have had their protest, and that it is time to get serious again: they must choose between centre and fringe, between euro and drachma.
六月议会选举结果取决于萨马拉斯和韦尼泽洛斯是否能说服70%的希腊人相信他们。希腊人表示愿意留在欧元区内，而他们此前则极力反对加入欧元区。届时，希腊也必须认真做出决定：要么持中立，要么走极端，要么要欧元，要么要德拉克马（译著：德拉克马为希腊货币单位）。
As well as trying to sharpen up his own campaign, Mr Samaras has to fend off disappointed conservatives who think he should be replaced—not least because he insisted on holding the poll when Mr Papademos seemed to be muddling through. Mr
Samaras’s predecessor, Costas Karamanlis, a former prime minister, might now try to replace him, though he is not an obvious choice to lead New Democracy into the next election. Small centre-right parties may also have a role. If Dora Bakoyannis, a former foreign minister and leader of Democratic Alliance, can be persuaded to hook up with Stefanos Manos, a former finance minister and boss of Drasi, a pro-business party, they might get enough votes for a dozen seats.
萨马拉斯一方面要加强竞选宣传力度，另一方面还要应付那些大失所望的保守党人。保守党人认为，由于萨马拉斯明知帕帕季莫斯在总理职务上胡乱应付却还坚持举行选举，所以萨马拉斯应该下台。萨马拉斯的前任、前希腊总理科斯塔斯?卡拉曼利斯 (Costas Karamanlis) 有望取萨马拉斯而代之，而卡拉曼利斯却并非带领新民主党参加下届选举的最佳人选。那些中右翼小党派或将扮演重要角色。如果支持商业的Drasi党主席马诺斯(Stefanos Manos)能与民主联盟（Democratic Alliance）主席多拉?巴科扬尼斯（Dora Bakoyannis）建立同盟，他们或将赢得议会12个席位。马诺斯曾任希腊前财政部长，而巴科扬尼斯则是希腊前外长。
Mr Venizelos has problems of his own. If Pasok loses more votes the second time around, he will be challenged for the party leadership by Andreas Loverdos, the health minister. This means he cannot reject Mr Tsipras as stridently as Mr Samaras does, because he needs to win back voters who have been wooed away by Syriza if he is to survive. Hence his conciliatory tone—while all the time stressing that Greece cannot afford to be outside the euro zone, where Mr Tsipras would lead it.
韦尼泽洛斯本身也是麻烦缠身。如果泛希腊社会主义运动党在新一轮议会选举中失去更多的选票，他本人的党主席职务或将不保，卫生部长安德烈亚斯?洛韦尔多斯（Andreas Loverdos）有可能接替他成为党主席。如此一来，韦尼泽洛斯就不能像萨马拉斯一样一口回绝齐普拉斯，因为想要保住党主席的职务，就要挽回那些改投左翼激进联盟的选票。韦尼泽洛斯用和缓的语调告诉人们，一旦脱离欧元区，希腊将失去庇护。然而齐普拉斯或将带领希腊离开欧元区。
希腊很可能退出欧元区
ALEXIS TSIPRAS, a left-wing upstart who first won a parliamentary seat less than three years ago, could be the man who takes Greece out of the euro. His Syriza (Left Coalition) party, which unites a handful of fractious radical groups, massively increased its vote in the general election on May 6th, mostly at the expense of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok). It has gone from the fringes of politics to being the second-largest party in the Greek parliament.
希腊左翼政治新贵齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)或许就是把希腊带出欧元区的人。三年前，齐普拉斯首次赢得议会席位。希腊左翼激进联盟(SYRIZA)由多个激进党团组成，在希腊5月6日举行的大选中，该联盟的支持率大幅提高，而他们的大部分支持者此前都是泛希腊社会主义运动党的忠实拥趸。由此，昔日希腊政坛上的无名小卒一跃成为希腊议会第二大党。 The centre-right New Democracy was the largest party; Pasok, previously New
Democracy’s coalition partner, came in third place with just 13.2% of the vote, its worst election performance in over 30 years. Most important, parties which, like Syriza, are opposed to the austerity measures that Pasok and New Democracy had agreed to as the price of a €130 billion ($169 billion) international bail-out earlier this year ended up with 70% of the vote. This, the recent fall of a budget-cutting Dutch government and the election on May 6th of a Socialist president in France are seen by some in Greece and elsewhere as a widespread challenge to Europe’s politics of austerity.
中右翼新民主党(New Democracy)当选为希腊议会第一大党。新民主党的昔日盟友-泛希腊社会主义运动党以13.2%的支持率排名第三，这是该党30多年来的最差选举成绩。左翼激进联盟这些反对实行紧缩措施的党派赢得了70%的支持率，这才是关键所在。泛希腊社会主义运动党和新民主党都赞成紧缩政策，从而换取国际社会在今年初向希腊提供1300亿欧元（1690亿美元）的援助。希腊某些人士和国际社会都认为，希腊产生这样的选举结果，近期德国政府提议削减预算遭拒，以及5月6日法国产生社会党籍总统等一连串事件都折射出欧洲紧缩政策遭遇到了越来越强烈的抵制。
In a fissiparous display of national desperation the Greek electorate gave no party much support. New Democracy’s 18.9% won it 108 seats, thanks to a rule that gives the front-running party an extra 50 seats; Syriza’s 16.8% got it 52 seats, and Pasok got 41 seats. The other parties elected were the Communist Party; Independent Greeks, a right-wing splinter group; Democratic Left, a splinter from Syriza; and the neo-fascist Golden Dawn (see chart).
希腊举国上下笼罩在失望的情绪之中，显现出四分五裂的形势，没有出现一党独大的局面。按照希腊法律规定，领先的党派可以获得额外50个席位，因此新民主党赢得了108个议会席位，支持率为18.9%，左翼激进联盟以16.8%的支持率赢得了52席，而泛希腊社会主义运动党则获得了41席。其他在议会获得席位的党派包括共产党（Communist Party），右翼小党派独
立希腊人党（Independent Greeks）， 左翼激进联盟成员民主左翼党（Democratic Left）和新纳粹主义倾向的金色黎明党（Golden Dawn）。
The collapse of Pasok’s vote deprived the pro-euro conservatives and Socialists of an overall majority in parliament, giving Mr Tsipras (pictured) a turn at playing kingmaker during this week’s round of coalition negotiations. After New Democracy decided it could not put together a coalition, Mr Tsipras had a go, coming up on May 8th with a list of demands that seemed tailor-made for rejection by the two “mainstream” parties. Cheekily, he asked Antonis Samaras and Evangelos Venizelos, the conservative and Socialist leaders, to sign a “letter of repentance” reneging on a written pledge to Brussels that they would fully implement reforms. This and his other proposals were duly rejected. Another election now looms, probably on June 17th. It may also end in stalemate. That would surely lead to the terms of the bail-out being breached, and make an exit from the euro much more likely.
泛希腊社会主义运动党选举失利，导致了支持欧元的保守党-新民主党就和泛希腊社会主义运动党失去了议会多数席位，齐普拉斯（如图）也因此实现逆转，在本周进行的组建联盟谈判中作充当起了支配者的角色。新民主党宣布不与任何党派结成政治联盟，此举致使齐普拉斯计划受阻，但他很快就另选他途，在5月8日提出了一份清单，列出了各项要求，而他的目的似乎就是为了让两大“主流”党派对该清单说不。此外，他还大言不惭的要求保守党新民主党主席萨马拉斯(Antonis Samaras)和泛希腊社会主义运动党主席韦尼泽洛斯（Evangelos Venizelos）签署一份“悔改书”，推翻他们对布鲁塞尔做出的全面实施改的革书面承诺。包括这项要求在内的齐普拉斯所有提议都遭到了拒绝。6月17日还将举行新一轮议会选举，并很可能以失败告终。这无疑将使国际援助告吹，希腊也很可能就此退出欧元区。
Until that day of reckoning a caretaker government will run the country. Lucas Papademos, the technocrat prime minister, will stand down in favour of a senior state lawyer or judge. Mr Papademos pushed through enough reforms during his six-month tenure for Greece to receive most of its next €5.2 billion loan tranche this week, ensuring that salaries and pensions will be paid until June. He made virtually no progress, though, on restoring business confidence or attracting investors from abroad. The economy is in its fifth year of recession.
希腊看守政府将留守到正式结果出台之时。希腊总理帕帕季莫斯(Lucas Papademos)是一位技术人才，下台后将成为高级律师或法官。在为期六个月的总理任期内，帕帕季莫斯促成了多项改革，本周52亿欧元新贷款中的大部分已经到位，确保希腊在六月之前有足够的钱支付薪水和养老金。然而，帕帕季莫斯在重建商业信心及吸引国外投资方面却无所建树。希腊经济持续低迷已有五年之久。
希腊很可能退出欧元区(2)
Mr Tsipras, who organised sit-ins and protest marches at high school, still enjoys stirring up the political establishment. He has demanded that Greece formally abandon the “barbarous” bail-out programme; place its banks under state control; and set up an international committee to audit the public debt before declaring a moratorium on repayments. Mr Tsipras argues that Greece can reject the bail-out and also stay in the euro; pro-reform politicians call this “naive”. Any such idea is rejected outright in Berlin.
齐普拉斯组织高中生举行静坐和游行示威活动，以搅动希腊政坛为乐。他要求希腊正式放弃“外邦”的经济援助计划，将银行收归国有，设立国际委员会，在宣布延期偿还债务之前对公共债务进行审查。齐普拉斯称希腊可以在拒绝援助计划的同时仍然留在欧元区内，而支持改革的政客们则称此种说法“太天真”。柏林也绝无可能同意这种提议。
Left-of-centre Greeks voted for Syriza both to punish Pasok for impoverishing the country and because Syriza opposes reforms that would open up closed-shop
professions in a bid to make Greece more competitive. Syriza’s idealistic economic programme calls for providing students with free meals and doling out pensions equal to final salaries. Mr Tsipras says the state should hire 100,000 more workers to help reduce unemployment, now running at 21%.
中左翼希腊民众投票支持左翼激进联盟，一方面是对泛希腊社会主义运动党施以颜色，正是在他们把希腊一步步带向衰败，另一方面则在于左翼激进联盟反对改革。为了增加希腊的竞争力，有关改革将开放限制行业。按照左翼激进联盟的经济设想，学生们可以享受免费餐点，退休金与退休前的薪水持平。齐普拉斯表示，政府应增加10万名工人的就业岗位，来降低失业率。目前希腊的失业率为21%。
One more chance
新一轮议会选举
The June election will hinge on whether Mr Samaras and Mr Venizelos can persuade the 70% of Greeks who say that they want to stay in the euro that they have had their protest, and that it is time to get serious again: they must choose between centre and fringe, between euro and drachma.
六月议会选举结果取决于萨马拉斯和韦尼泽洛斯是否能说服70%的希腊人相信他们。希腊人表示愿意留在欧元区内，而他们此前则极力反对加入欧元区。届时，希腊也必须认真做出决定：要么持中立，要么走极端，要么要欧元，要么要德拉克马（译著：德拉克马为希腊货币单位）。
As well as trying to sharpen up his own campaign, Mr Samaras has to fend off disappointed conservatives who think he should be replaced—not least because he insisted on holding the poll when Mr Papademos seemed to be muddling through. Mr
Samaras’s predecessor, Costas Karamanlis, a former prime minister, might now try to replace him, though he is not an obvious choice to lead New Democracy into the next election. Small centre-right parties may also have a role. If Dora Bakoyannis, a former foreign minister and leader of Democratic Alliance, can be persuaded to hook up with Stefanos Manos, a former finance minister and boss of Drasi, a pro-business party, they might get enough votes for a dozen seats.
萨马拉斯一方面要加强竞选宣传力度，另一方面还要应付那些大失所望的保守党人。保守党人认为，由于萨马拉斯明知帕帕季莫斯在总理职务上胡乱应付却还坚持举行选举，所以萨马拉斯应该下台。萨马拉斯的前任、前希腊总理科斯塔斯?卡拉曼利斯 (Costas Karamanlis) 有望取萨马拉斯而代之，而卡拉曼利斯却并非带领新民主党参加下届选举的最佳人选。那些中右翼小党派或将扮演重要角色。如果支持商业的Drasi党主席马诺斯(Stefanos Manos)能与民主联盟（Democratic Alliance）主席多拉?巴科扬尼斯（Dora Bakoyannis）建立同盟，他们或将赢得议会12个席位。马诺斯曾任希腊前财政部长，而巴科扬尼斯则是希腊前外长。
Mr Venizelos has problems of his own. If Pasok loses more votes the second time around, he will be challenged for the party leadership by Andreas Loverdos, the health minister. This means he cannot reject Mr Tsipras as stridently as Mr Samaras does, because he needs to win back voters who have been wooed away by Syriza if he is to survive. Hence his conciliatory tone—while all the time stressing that Greece cannot afford to be outside the euro zone, where Mr Tsipras would lead it.
韦尼泽洛斯本身也是麻烦缠身。如果泛希腊社会主义运动党在新一轮议会选举中失去更多的选票，他本人的党主席职务或将不保，卫生部长安德烈亚斯?洛韦尔多斯（Andreas Loverdos）有可能接替他成为党主席。如此一来，韦尼泽洛斯就不能像萨马拉斯一样一口回绝齐普拉斯，因为想要保住党主席的职务，就要挽回那些改投左翼激进联盟的选票。韦尼泽洛斯用和缓的语调告诉人们，一旦脱离欧元区，希腊将失去庇护。然而齐普拉斯或将带领希腊离开欧元区。