中国如何解决房地产难题
China needs a long-term solution for its property woes
摘要: Wen Jiabao paid an unusual visit to the city of Wenzhou during the recent national holiday. Accompanied by the head of the Peoples Bank of China, the finance minister and other senior officials, China ...
Wen Jiabao paid an unusual visit to the city of Wenzhou during the recent national holiday. Accompanied by the head of the Peoples Bank of China, the finance minister and other senior officials, China’s premier went to assess the surge in informal lending to the city’s 450,000 small consumer product and export companies as well as property developers, many of which can no longer get cheap finance from state-owned banks and are failing. With property prices in the secondary market down 10 per cent since June, Wenzhou’s problems shed light on China’s newest economic problem – a faltering property market.
What happens if the 13 per cent of GDP accounted for by property investment stalls or falls? Property is one of the main symbols and causes of urban wealth and is a key driver of industries including cement and steel. Property developers in China are faced with a fall in prices and transaction volumes, which in 20 big cities are about a third lower than a year ago. Depressed share prices are fueling fears that the property bubble is about to burst.
The good news is that China managed a property slowdown successfully in 2004 without far-reaching macroeconomic consequences. And the bubble story assumes, often mistakenly, that local anecdotes of speculative activity and oversupply are national. It also ignores rising household incomes, urban house price-to-income ratios and rising demand for new and refurbished homes. A shake-out of weak developers and property assets, and some recapitalisation of banks are all manageable.
The bad news is that China has a big problem with leverage in local and provincial governments, which are responsible for infrastructure and land development. This has been likened locally to China’s sub-prime equivalent.
Local governments have significant exposure to property values and collateral and are heavily-indebted with liabilities of at least 30 per cent of GDP. Many are facing cash-flow problems and are prone to default, with large refinancings and repayments due in the next two years. Some Rmb3,000bn of bad local government loans, or 8 per cent of GDP, are being scrutinised by regulators and the National Audit Bureau. A spate of failed land auctions, falls in land transactions and weakness in property prices could have far bigger consequences for China’s capitalist model.
China has the classic symptoms of a typical investment bust, notably a steady deterioration in the quality of investment and financing. A rise in the investment share of GDP to 50 per cent and signs of overcapacity in the construction and steel sectors should not be ignored. The rising ratio of the capital stock to output means that ever greater investment is needed to sustain GDP growth.
Beijing has to rebalance its investment-centric, credit-hungry economic model to one built round household consumption. But this is complex. It involves a redistribution of income from capital and profits to labour and wages; radical changes in the role of the exchange rate, interest rates and capital markets; and strategies to counter the high propensity to save by households, corporates and central government. It is also politically divisive because power and economic privilege have to be wrested from party elites, state enterprises and banks, and given to new beneficiaries such as private companies, households, college graduates and rural migrant workers, the last of which has become increasingly restive.
Mr Wen continues to stress that the rebalancing of the country’s economy is of paramount importance to China, and to the global economy. We should wish China well in this endeavour. It needs to continue to put the credit and investment genies back in the bottle and pursue economic, legal and political reforms. Beijing’s forthcoming leadership transition does not make the timing propitious. The political will for swifter and more effective rebalancing is not convincing. Last week’s announcement of easier credit and tax policies for smaller companies will probably be followed by easier economic and credit policies and new investments this winter as weaker exports lead to slower growth. That might be good news for some, but not for rebalancing and economic stability.
The writer is senior economic adviser at UBS and author of Uprising: will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy?
国庆节期间，中国总理温家宝对温州进行了一次非同寻常的视察。在中国人民银行行长、财政部长和其他高官的陪同下，温家宝考察了当地45万家小型消费品和出口企业以及房地产开发商民间贷款飙升的情况——许多企业无法再像过去那样从国有银行获得廉价贷款，因此濒临破产。自今年6月以来温州二手房价格已经下降10%，因此其问题突显出中国面临的最新经济问题：房地产市场萎靡不振。
如果为国内生产总值(GDP)贡献13%的房地产投资停滞或下降，将会出现什么情况？房产是城市居民财富的主要象征和来源之一，也是包括水泥和钢材在内多个行业发展的主要驱动因素。中国房地产开发商面临量价齐跌的局面——20个大城市的房地产交易量已同比下降三成左右。而低迷的房地产股票价格也使人们担心房地产泡沫即将破裂。
好消息是，2004年中国曾在没有对宏观经济造成严重影响的情况下成功地放缓了房地产行业的增长。认为中国房地产存在泡沫的人经常错误地认定，房地产投机活动和过度供应是一个全国现象。他们也忽视了中国家庭收入日益增长，城市房价收入比和人们对新房和改善性住房的需求日益上升等事实。实力较弱开发商的出局和房价的下跌，以及一些银行的资本重组都在可控范围之内。
坏消息是，中国负责基础设施和土地开发的地方和省级政府存在严重的杠杆贷款问题。这
些贷款一直被比作中国的次贷。
中国地方政府在房地产价值和抵押品上拥有巨大敞口，背负的巨额债务至少占到GDP的30%。许多地方政府今后两年需要进行大规模的再融资、偿还大量债务，因此面临现金流问题，很可能出现违约。监管机构和国家审计署正在审查地方政府约3万亿元人民币（占GDP的8%）的坏账。一系列土地流拍、土地交易量下降和房价下跌可能对中国的资本模式造成深远得多的影响。
中国拥有典型投资崩盘的典型症状，突出表现在投资和融资质量逐步下降。投资占GDP的比例已上升至50%，建筑和钢材行业产能过剩，这些都是不容忽视的迹象。资本存量与产出的比率日益上升意味着，中国需要越来越多的投资来保持GDP的增长。
中国政府必须将其以投资为中心、高度依赖信贷的经济增长模式调整为以家庭消费为基础的发展模式，但这是一件很复杂的事情。涉及到对资本收入和企业盈利进行二次分配，用来支付劳动力成本，提高工人薪资水平；彻底改变汇率、利率和资本市场扮演的角色；制定战略，让家庭、企业和央行改变喜欢储蓄的倾向。它还会导致政治分化，因为政党精英、国有企业和银行的权力和经济特权必须被剥夺，让私人企业、家庭、大学毕业生和农民工等新群体受益。而农民工已经变得越来越难以管理。
温家宝一直强调，中国经济再平衡对中国和全球经济来说极其重要。我们应该希望中国在这方面有所作为。中国需要坚持努力，把信贷和投资冲动这两个魔鬼塞回瓶子里去，并在经济、法律和政治领域开展改革。中国领导层即将换届，因此目前并非很好的改革时机。加快推出更有效的经济再平衡措施的政治意愿并不强烈。上周中国政府宣布放松对小企业的信贷和税收政策，而随着出口下降导致增长放缓，今年冬天政府很可能会实施较宽松的经济和信贷政策，并进行新的投资。对某些人而言这可能是好消息，但对经济再平衡和稳定而言却并非如此。
本文作者是瑞银(UBS)高级经济顾问，著有《崛起：新兴市场会塑造还是会撼动全球经济？》(Uprising: will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy)一书
美拟出新规：外国人买房送签证
Foreigners' Sweetener: Buy House, Get a Visa
摘要: The reeling housing market has come to this: To shore it up, two Senators are preparing to introduce a bipartisan bill Thursday that would give residence visas to foreigners who spend at least $500,00 ...
The reeling housing market has come to this: To shore it up, two Senators are preparing to introduce a bipartisan bill Thursday that would give residence visas to foreigners who spend at least $500,000 to buy houses in the U.S.
The provision is part of a larger package of immigration measures, co-authored by Sens. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) and Mike Lee (R., Utah), designed to spur more foreign investment in the U.S.
Foreigners have accounted for a growing share of home purchases in South Florida, Southern California, Arizona and other hard-hit markets. Chinese and Canadian
buyers, among others, are taking advantage not only of big declines in U.S. home prices and reduced competition from Americans but also of favorable foreign exchange rates.
To fuel this demand, the proposed measure would offer visas to any foreigner making a cash investment of at least $500,000 on residential real-estate─a single-family house, condo or townhouse. Applicants can spend the entire amount on one house or spend as little as $250,000 on a residence and invest the rest in other residential real estate, which can be rented out.
The measure would complement existing visa programs that allow foreigners to enter the U.S. if they invest in new businesses that create jobs. Backers believe the initiative would help soak up an excess supply of inventory when many would-be American home buyers are holding back because they're concerned about their jobs or because they would have to take a big loss to sell their current house.
'This is a way to create more demand without costing the federal government a nickel,' Sen. Schumer said in an interview.
International buyers accounted for around $82 billion in U.S. residential real-estate sales for the year ending in March, up from $66 billion during the previous year period, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Foreign buyers accounted for at least 5.5% of all home sales in Miami and 4.3% of Phoenix home sales during the month of July, according to MDA DataQuick.
Foreigners immigrating to the U.S. with the new visa wouldn't be able to work here unless they obtained a regular work visa through the normal process. They'd be allowed to bring a spouse and any children under the age of 18 but they wouldn't be able to stay in the country legally on the new visa once they sold their properties.
The provision would create visas that are separate from current programs so as to not displace anyone waiting for other visas. There would be no cap on the home-buyer visa program.
Over the past year, Canadians accounted for one quarter of foreign home buyers, and buyers from China, Mexico, Great Britain, and India accounted for another quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors. For buyers from some countries, restrictive immigration rules are 'a deterrent to purchase here, for sure,' says Sally Daley, a real-estate agent in Vero Beach, Fla. She estimates that around one-third of her sales this year have gone to foreigners, an all-time high.
'Without them, we would be stagnant,' says Ms. Daley. 'They're hiring contractors, buying furniture, and they're also helping the market correct by getting inventory whittled down.'
In March, Ms. Daley sold a four-bedroom vacation home in a gated community to Harry Morrison, a Canadian from Lakefield, Ontario. 'House prices were going down, and you could still make a lot of money on the exchange rate,' said Mr. Morrison, who first bought a home in Vero Beach four years ago.
While a special visa would allow Canadian buyers like Mr. Morrison to spend more time in the U.S., he said he's not sure 'what other benefit a visa would give me.'
The idea has some high-profile supporters, including Warren Buffett, who this summer floated the idea of encouraging more 'rich immigrants' to buy homes. 'If you wanted to change your immigration policy so that you let 500,000 families in but they have to have a significant net worth and everything, you'd solve things very quickly,' Mr. Buffett said in an August interview with PBS's Charlie Rose.
The measure could also help turn around buyer psychology, said mortgage-bond pioneer Lewis Ranieri. He said the program represented 'triage' for a housing market that needs more fixes, even modest ones.
But other industry executives greeted the proposal with skepticism. Foreign buyers 'don't need an incentive' to buy homes, said Richard Smith, chief executive of Realogy Corp., which owns the Coldwell Banker and Century 21 real-estate brands. 'We have a lot of Americans who are willing to buy. We just have to fix the economy.'
The measure may have a more targeted effect in exclusive markets like San Marino, Calif., that have become popular with foreigners. Easier immigration rules could be 'tremendous' because of the difficulty many Chinese buyers have in obtaining visas, says Maggie Navarro, a local real-estate agent.
Ms. Navarro recently sold a home for $1.67 million, around 8% above the asking price, to a Chinese national who works in the mining industry. She says nearly every listing she's put on the market in San Marino 'has had at least one full price cash offer from a buyer from mainland China.'
美国的住房市场已经糟糕到了这个地步：为了支撑住房市场，两位参议员周四提出一项跨党派法案，该法案将向在美国至少斥资50万美元置业的外国人提供居留签证。
这项规定是由纽约州民主党参议员舒默（Charles Schumer）和犹他州共和党参议员迈克•李（Mike Lee）联合提出的一整套移民举措的组成部分。这些举措旨在推动外国人在美国投资。 在南佛罗里达州、南加州、亚利桑那州和其它遭重创的住房市场，外国人置业所占比重日益上升。其中来自中国和加拿大的买家不仅利用美国房价大幅下跌且来自美国人的竞争减少的机会，而且利用了美元以外的货币汇率上升的好处。
Getty Images由舒默参与起草的法案的支持者们说，这将有助于弥补美国买家收紧钱袋带来的影响。
为了推动这一需求，两位参议员提出的这项法案将向至少出资50万美元购置住宅房地产的外国人提供签证，无论所购房产是独户住房、公寓还是联排别墅均可。申请人可以用全部资
金买下一套房产，或是只花25万美元买下一套住宅，将剩余资金投资其它住宅地产以供出租。
这项举措将是对现有签证项目的补充。现有签证项目规定，如果外国人投资设立能够创造就业的新企业，那么他们将被允许进入美国。支持这项举措的人认为，在美国许多潜在购房人犹豫不决之际，此举有助于吸收过剩的存量住房。美国购房人所以犹豫不决，或是出于对工作的担心，或是因为他们必须大幅折价出售现有住房才能购买新房。
参议员舒默在采访中说，此举可在无需联邦政府付出任何代价的情况下创造更多需求。 美国全国地产经纪商协会（National Association of Realtors）的数据显示，在截至今年3月的一年中，国际购房人在美国住宅地产销售额中大约占到820亿美元，而此前一年这一数字只有660亿美元。地产数据追踪商MDA DataQuick的数据显示，今年7月外国买家在迈阿密所有房屋销量中所占比重至少达到5.5%，在凤凰城，这一比例为4.3%。
通过这种方式移民到美国的外国人无法在美工作，除非他们通过正常程序获得工作签证。他们可以携带配偶以及任何不满18岁的子女来美，但一旦他们卖掉房产，就无法凭借这种签证合法留在美国。
该规定涉及的签证将和当前项目分开，所以不会影响到任何一位已经在等待签证的人。此类签证的数量没有上限。
据全美地产经纪商协会的数据，过去一年中，加拿大人占了外国购房者的四分之一，而中国、墨西哥、英国和印度的购房者加起来又占了四分之一。佛罗里达州弗隆滩房地产中介达利(Sally Daley)说，对于来自一些国家的购房者来说，限制性移民规定无疑阻碍了他们在美国购房。她估计，今年经她手售出的房屋约有三分之一是由外国人买走的，为目前为止最高比例。
达利说，假如没有外国人，我们会陷入停滞。他们开始雇承包商、买家具，还令库存减少，进而帮助市场调整。
今年3月，达利把一个装有门控的社区中一座有四个卧室的度假房卖给了来自加拿大安大略省雷克湖的莫里森(Harry Morrison)。莫里森说，房价开始下滑，你还可以在汇率上占很大便宜。四年前，莫里森首次在弗隆滩买了一座房子。
尽管特别签证可以使莫里森这样的加拿大人更多地呆在美国，但他说，他不知道签证还能给他带来其他什么好处。
这种想法难倒了包括巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在内的一些知名度很高的支持者。巴菲特今年夏天提出了鼓励更多富有的移民买房的想法。巴菲特今年8月接受美国公共广播公司(PBS)主持人罗斯(Charlie Rose)采访时说，如果你愿意调整移民政策，让50万户拥有相当大资产净值的家庭移民美国，你会很快解决问题。
抵押贷款债券发起人拉涅利(Lewis Ranieri)说，放宽移民规定还可能帮助转变购房者的心态。他说，这个项目代表了楼市的―治疗类选法‖，目前的楼市需要更多的解决措施，即使力度不是很大的措施。
不过，其他业内高管对此提议表示质疑。Realogy Corp.首席执行长史密斯(Richard Smith)说，外国购房者不需要鼓励来购房。该公司拥有Coldwell Banker 和21世纪不动产(Century
21)房地产品牌。他说，我们有很多美国人想要买房，我们只是需要把经济搞好。
特别签证可能会在加州圣马利诺等越来越受外国人青睐的高端市场产生更具针对性的效果。当地房地产中介纳瓦罗(Maggie Navarro)说，鉴于很多中国购房者在获得签证方面遭遇的困难，更宽松的移民规定可能产生巨大的影响。
纳瓦罗最近把一座房子以167万美元的价格卖给了一位从事矿业的中国人，较开价高了约8%。她说，她在圣马利诺挂牌出售的房屋几乎每套都至少收到了一位中国内地买家的现金全款出价。
中国如何解决房地产难题
China needs a long-term solution for its property woes
摘要: Wen Jiabao paid an unusual visit to the city of Wenzhou during the recent national holiday. Accompanied by the head of the Peoples Bank of China, the finance minister and other senior officials, China ...
Wen Jiabao paid an unusual visit to the city of Wenzhou during the recent national holiday. Accompanied by the head of the Peoples Bank of China, the finance minister and other senior officials, China’s premier went to assess the surge in informal lending to the city’s 450,000 small consumer product and export companies as well as property developers, many of which can no longer get cheap finance from state-owned banks and are failing. With property prices in the secondary market down 10 per cent since June, Wenzhou’s problems shed light on China’s newest economic problem – a faltering property market.
What happens if the 13 per cent of GDP accounted for by property investment stalls or falls? Property is one of the main symbols and causes of urban wealth and is a key driver of industries including cement and steel. Property developers in China are faced with a fall in prices and transaction volumes, which in 20 big cities are about a third lower than a year ago. Depressed share prices are fueling fears that the property bubble is about to burst.
The good news is that China managed a property slowdown successfully in 2004 without far-reaching macroeconomic consequences. And the bubble story assumes, often mistakenly, that local anecdotes of speculative activity and oversupply are national. It also ignores rising household incomes, urban house price-to-income ratios and rising demand for new and refurbished homes. A shake-out of weak developers and property assets, and some recapitalisation of banks are all manageable.
The bad news is that China has a big problem with leverage in local and provincial governments, which are responsible for infrastructure and land development. This has been likened locally to China’s sub-prime equivalent.
Local governments have significant exposure to property values and collateral and are heavily-indebted with liabilities of at least 30 per cent of GDP. Many are facing cash-flow problems and are prone to default, with large refinancings and repayments due in the next two years. Some Rmb3,000bn of bad local government loans, or 8 per cent of GDP, are being scrutinised by regulators and the National Audit Bureau. A spate of failed land auctions, falls in land transactions and weakness in property prices could have far bigger consequences for China’s capitalist model.
China has the classic symptoms of a typical investment bust, notably a steady deterioration in the quality of investment and financing. A rise in the investment share of GDP to 50 per cent and signs of overcapacity in the construction and steel sectors should not be ignored. The rising ratio of the capital stock to output means that ever greater investment is needed to sustain GDP growth.
Beijing has to rebalance its investment-centric, credit-hungry economic model to one built round household consumption. But this is complex. It involves a redistribution of income from capital and profits to labour and wages; radical changes in the role of the exchange rate, interest rates and capital markets; and strategies to counter the high propensity to save by households, corporates and central government. It is also politically divisive because power and economic privilege have to be wrested from party elites, state enterprises and banks, and given to new beneficiaries such as private companies, households, college graduates and rural migrant workers, the last of which has become increasingly restive.
Mr Wen continues to stress that the rebalancing of the country’s economy is of paramount importance to China, and to the global economy. We should wish China well in this endeavour. It needs to continue to put the credit and investment genies back in the bottle and pursue economic, legal and political reforms. Beijing’s forthcoming leadership transition does not make the timing propitious. The political will for swifter and more effective rebalancing is not convincing. Last week’s announcement of easier credit and tax policies for smaller companies will probably be followed by easier economic and credit policies and new investments this winter as weaker exports lead to slower growth. That might be good news for some, but not for rebalancing and economic stability.
The writer is senior economic adviser at UBS and author of Uprising: will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy?
国庆节期间，中国总理温家宝对温州进行了一次非同寻常的视察。在中国人民银行行长、财政部长和其他高官的陪同下，温家宝考察了当地45万家小型消费品和出口企业以及房地产开发商民间贷款飙升的情况——许多企业无法再像过去那样从国有银行获得廉价贷款，因此濒临破产。自今年6月以来温州二手房价格已经下降10%，因此其问题突显出中国面临的最新经济问题：房地产市场萎靡不振。
如果为国内生产总值(GDP)贡献13%的房地产投资停滞或下降，将会出现什么情况？房产是城市居民财富的主要象征和来源之一，也是包括水泥和钢材在内多个行业发展的主要驱动因素。中国房地产开发商面临量价齐跌的局面——20个大城市的房地产交易量已同比下降三成左右。而低迷的房地产股票价格也使人们担心房地产泡沫即将破裂。
好消息是，2004年中国曾在没有对宏观经济造成严重影响的情况下成功地放缓了房地产行业的增长。认为中国房地产存在泡沫的人经常错误地认定，房地产投机活动和过度供应是一个全国现象。他们也忽视了中国家庭收入日益增长，城市房价收入比和人们对新房和改善性住房的需求日益上升等事实。实力较弱开发商的出局和房价的下跌，以及一些银行的资本重组都在可控范围之内。
坏消息是，中国负责基础设施和土地开发的地方和省级政府存在严重的杠杆贷款问题。这
些贷款一直被比作中国的次贷。
中国地方政府在房地产价值和抵押品上拥有巨大敞口，背负的巨额债务至少占到GDP的30%。许多地方政府今后两年需要进行大规模的再融资、偿还大量债务，因此面临现金流问题，很可能出现违约。监管机构和国家审计署正在审查地方政府约3万亿元人民币（占GDP的8%）的坏账。一系列土地流拍、土地交易量下降和房价下跌可能对中国的资本模式造成深远得多的影响。
中国拥有典型投资崩盘的典型症状，突出表现在投资和融资质量逐步下降。投资占GDP的比例已上升至50%，建筑和钢材行业产能过剩，这些都是不容忽视的迹象。资本存量与产出的比率日益上升意味着，中国需要越来越多的投资来保持GDP的增长。
中国政府必须将其以投资为中心、高度依赖信贷的经济增长模式调整为以家庭消费为基础的发展模式，但这是一件很复杂的事情。涉及到对资本收入和企业盈利进行二次分配，用来支付劳动力成本，提高工人薪资水平；彻底改变汇率、利率和资本市场扮演的角色；制定战略，让家庭、企业和央行改变喜欢储蓄的倾向。它还会导致政治分化，因为政党精英、国有企业和银行的权力和经济特权必须被剥夺，让私人企业、家庭、大学毕业生和农民工等新群体受益。而农民工已经变得越来越难以管理。
温家宝一直强调，中国经济再平衡对中国和全球经济来说极其重要。我们应该希望中国在这方面有所作为。中国需要坚持努力，把信贷和投资冲动这两个魔鬼塞回瓶子里去，并在经济、法律和政治领域开展改革。中国领导层即将换届，因此目前并非很好的改革时机。加快推出更有效的经济再平衡措施的政治意愿并不强烈。上周中国政府宣布放松对小企业的信贷和税收政策，而随着出口下降导致增长放缓，今年冬天政府很可能会实施较宽松的经济和信贷政策，并进行新的投资。对某些人而言这可能是好消息，但对经济再平衡和稳定而言却并非如此。
本文作者是瑞银(UBS)高级经济顾问，著有《崛起：新兴市场会塑造还是会撼动全球经济？》(Uprising: will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy)一书
美拟出新规：外国人买房送签证
Foreigners' Sweetener: Buy House, Get a Visa
摘要: The reeling housing market has come to this: To shore it up, two Senators are preparing to introduce a bipartisan bill Thursday that would give residence visas to foreigners who spend at least $500,00 ...
The reeling housing market has come to this: To shore it up, two Senators are preparing to introduce a bipartisan bill Thursday that would give residence visas to foreigners who spend at least $500,000 to buy houses in the U.S.
The provision is part of a larger package of immigration measures, co-authored by Sens. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) and Mike Lee (R., Utah), designed to spur more foreign investment in the U.S.
Foreigners have accounted for a growing share of home purchases in South Florida, Southern California, Arizona and other hard-hit markets. Chinese and Canadian
buyers, among others, are taking advantage not only of big declines in U.S. home prices and reduced competition from Americans but also of favorable foreign exchange rates.
To fuel this demand, the proposed measure would offer visas to any foreigner making a cash investment of at least $500,000 on residential real-estate─a single-family house, condo or townhouse. Applicants can spend the entire amount on one house or spend as little as $250,000 on a residence and invest the rest in other residential real estate, which can be rented out.
The measure would complement existing visa programs that allow foreigners to enter the U.S. if they invest in new businesses that create jobs. Backers believe the initiative would help soak up an excess supply of inventory when many would-be American home buyers are holding back because they're concerned about their jobs or because they would have to take a big loss to sell their current house.
'This is a way to create more demand without costing the federal government a nickel,' Sen. Schumer said in an interview.
International buyers accounted for around $82 billion in U.S. residential real-estate sales for the year ending in March, up from $66 billion during the previous year period, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Foreign buyers accounted for at least 5.5% of all home sales in Miami and 4.3% of Phoenix home sales during the month of July, according to MDA DataQuick.
Foreigners immigrating to the U.S. with the new visa wouldn't be able to work here unless they obtained a regular work visa through the normal process. They'd be allowed to bring a spouse and any children under the age of 18 but they wouldn't be able to stay in the country legally on the new visa once they sold their properties.
The provision would create visas that are separate from current programs so as to not displace anyone waiting for other visas. There would be no cap on the home-buyer visa program.
Over the past year, Canadians accounted for one quarter of foreign home buyers, and buyers from China, Mexico, Great Britain, and India accounted for another quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors. For buyers from some countries, restrictive immigration rules are 'a deterrent to purchase here, for sure,' says Sally Daley, a real-estate agent in Vero Beach, Fla. She estimates that around one-third of her sales this year have gone to foreigners, an all-time high.
'Without them, we would be stagnant,' says Ms. Daley. 'They're hiring contractors, buying furniture, and they're also helping the market correct by getting inventory whittled down.'
In March, Ms. Daley sold a four-bedroom vacation home in a gated community to Harry Morrison, a Canadian from Lakefield, Ontario. 'House prices were going down, and you could still make a lot of money on the exchange rate,' said Mr. Morrison, who first bought a home in Vero Beach four years ago.
While a special visa would allow Canadian buyers like Mr. Morrison to spend more time in the U.S., he said he's not sure 'what other benefit a visa would give me.'
The idea has some high-profile supporters, including Warren Buffett, who this summer floated the idea of encouraging more 'rich immigrants' to buy homes. 'If you wanted to change your immigration policy so that you let 500,000 families in but they have to have a significant net worth and everything, you'd solve things very quickly,' Mr. Buffett said in an August interview with PBS's Charlie Rose.
The measure could also help turn around buyer psychology, said mortgage-bond pioneer Lewis Ranieri. He said the program represented 'triage' for a housing market that needs more fixes, even modest ones.
But other industry executives greeted the proposal with skepticism. Foreign buyers 'don't need an incentive' to buy homes, said Richard Smith, chief executive of Realogy Corp., which owns the Coldwell Banker and Century 21 real-estate brands. 'We have a lot of Americans who are willing to buy. We just have to fix the economy.'
The measure may have a more targeted effect in exclusive markets like San Marino, Calif., that have become popular with foreigners. Easier immigration rules could be 'tremendous' because of the difficulty many Chinese buyers have in obtaining visas, says Maggie Navarro, a local real-estate agent.
Ms. Navarro recently sold a home for $1.67 million, around 8% above the asking price, to a Chinese national who works in the mining industry. She says nearly every listing she's put on the market in San Marino 'has had at least one full price cash offer from a buyer from mainland China.'
美国的住房市场已经糟糕到了这个地步：为了支撑住房市场，两位参议员周四提出一项跨党派法案，该法案将向在美国至少斥资50万美元置业的外国人提供居留签证。
这项规定是由纽约州民主党参议员舒默（Charles Schumer）和犹他州共和党参议员迈克•李（Mike Lee）联合提出的一整套移民举措的组成部分。这些举措旨在推动外国人在美国投资。 在南佛罗里达州、南加州、亚利桑那州和其它遭重创的住房市场，外国人置业所占比重日益上升。其中来自中国和加拿大的买家不仅利用美国房价大幅下跌且来自美国人的竞争减少的机会，而且利用了美元以外的货币汇率上升的好处。
Getty Images由舒默参与起草的法案的支持者们说，这将有助于弥补美国买家收紧钱袋带来的影响。
为了推动这一需求，两位参议员提出的这项法案将向至少出资50万美元购置住宅房地产的外国人提供签证，无论所购房产是独户住房、公寓还是联排别墅均可。申请人可以用全部资
金买下一套房产，或是只花25万美元买下一套住宅，将剩余资金投资其它住宅地产以供出租。
这项举措将是对现有签证项目的补充。现有签证项目规定，如果外国人投资设立能够创造就业的新企业，那么他们将被允许进入美国。支持这项举措的人认为，在美国许多潜在购房人犹豫不决之际，此举有助于吸收过剩的存量住房。美国购房人所以犹豫不决，或是出于对工作的担心，或是因为他们必须大幅折价出售现有住房才能购买新房。
参议员舒默在采访中说，此举可在无需联邦政府付出任何代价的情况下创造更多需求。 美国全国地产经纪商协会（National Association of Realtors）的数据显示，在截至今年3月的一年中，国际购房人在美国住宅地产销售额中大约占到820亿美元，而此前一年这一数字只有660亿美元。地产数据追踪商MDA DataQuick的数据显示，今年7月外国买家在迈阿密所有房屋销量中所占比重至少达到5.5%，在凤凰城，这一比例为4.3%。
通过这种方式移民到美国的外国人无法在美工作，除非他们通过正常程序获得工作签证。他们可以携带配偶以及任何不满18岁的子女来美，但一旦他们卖掉房产，就无法凭借这种签证合法留在美国。
该规定涉及的签证将和当前项目分开，所以不会影响到任何一位已经在等待签证的人。此类签证的数量没有上限。
据全美地产经纪商协会的数据，过去一年中，加拿大人占了外国购房者的四分之一，而中国、墨西哥、英国和印度的购房者加起来又占了四分之一。佛罗里达州弗隆滩房地产中介达利(Sally Daley)说，对于来自一些国家的购房者来说，限制性移民规定无疑阻碍了他们在美国购房。她估计，今年经她手售出的房屋约有三分之一是由外国人买走的，为目前为止最高比例。
达利说，假如没有外国人，我们会陷入停滞。他们开始雇承包商、买家具，还令库存减少，进而帮助市场调整。
今年3月，达利把一个装有门控的社区中一座有四个卧室的度假房卖给了来自加拿大安大略省雷克湖的莫里森(Harry Morrison)。莫里森说，房价开始下滑，你还可以在汇率上占很大便宜。四年前，莫里森首次在弗隆滩买了一座房子。
尽管特别签证可以使莫里森这样的加拿大人更多地呆在美国，但他说，他不知道签证还能给他带来其他什么好处。
这种想法难倒了包括巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在内的一些知名度很高的支持者。巴菲特今年夏天提出了鼓励更多富有的移民买房的想法。巴菲特今年8月接受美国公共广播公司(PBS)主持人罗斯(Charlie Rose)采访时说，如果你愿意调整移民政策，让50万户拥有相当大资产净值的家庭移民美国，你会很快解决问题。
抵押贷款债券发起人拉涅利(Lewis Ranieri)说，放宽移民规定还可能帮助转变购房者的心态。他说，这个项目代表了楼市的―治疗类选法‖，目前的楼市需要更多的解决措施，即使力度不是很大的措施。
不过，其他业内高管对此提议表示质疑。Realogy Corp.首席执行长史密斯(Richard Smith)说，外国购房者不需要鼓励来购房。该公司拥有Coldwell Banker 和21世纪不动产(Century
21)房地产品牌。他说，我们有很多美国人想要买房，我们只是需要把经济搞好。
特别签证可能会在加州圣马利诺等越来越受外国人青睐的高端市场产生更具针对性的效果。当地房地产中介纳瓦罗(Maggie Navarro)说，鉴于很多中国购房者在获得签证方面遭遇的困难，更宽松的移民规定可能产生巨大的影响。
纳瓦罗最近把一座房子以167万美元的价格卖给了一位从事矿业的中国人，较开价高了约8%。她说，她在圣马利诺挂牌出售的房屋几乎每套都至少收到了一位中国内地买家的现金全款出价。