By using direct armed pressure in these disputes, China makes its neighbors more eager for U.S. military support, and at the same time makes America less willing to give it, because of the clear risk of a direct U.S.-China clash. In other words, by confronting America's friends with force, China confronts America with the choice between deserting its friends and fighting China. Beijing is betting that, faced with this choice, America will back off and leave its allies and friends unsupported. This will weaken America's alliances and partnerships, undermine U.S. power in Asia, and enhance China's power.
通过在这些争端中使用直接的军事压力，中国使他的邻国对美国的支持更加渴望，同时也因为中美冲突的明显风险而使美国更不愿意提供支持。换句话来讲，通过用武力对抗美国的盟友，中国使美国面对抛弃盟友还是面对中国的选择困境。北京打赌美国在面对这些选择时肯定会抛弃他的盟友而不提供支持。这会削弱美国的同盟和伙伴关系，从而弱化美国在亚洲的力量，加强中国的力量。
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This view of China's motives explains its recent conduct.
Ever since President Obama announced the "pivot," China has tested U.S. willingness to support its allies over the Scarborough Shoals andSenkaku/Daioyu disputes. Until his Asian trip last month, Obama seemed inclined to step back from America's commitments, but his bold words in Tokyoand Manila suggest he has recovered his resolve to stand firm.
对中国动机的观点解释了它最近的行动。
自从奥巴马总统宣布了"重返亚太战略"，中国就在斯卡伯勒浅滩(黄岩岛)和钓鱼岛测试了美国对支持其盟友的意愿。在奥巴马上月的亚洲行之前，他偏向于放下美国的承诺，但他在东京和马尼拉的讲话表明他恢复了站稳立场的决心。
Now we can expect China to test this newly-recovered resolve by applying more pressure in the same places or elsewhere. And that is what Beijing is doing today in the waters off Vietnam. It is calling Obama's bluff. Expect morepressure against Manila and Tokyo soon.
Of course this carries risks for China. It does not want to fight America, so it must be confident in the judgment that America will back down and desertits friends rather than engage in conflict with China, even if backing down badly weakens the U.S. position in Asia. This confidence reflects two key judgments by China's leaders.
现在，我们可以期望中国通过在同样的地方或别的地方施加压力来考验这个新恢复的决心。这就是北京最近在越南附近水域所做的事。
当然，这对中国有风险。中国不想与美国作斗争，所以，中国必须对自己的判断很有信心：美国必定会让步，抛弃他的盟友而不是与中国作斗争，即使让步会弱化美国在亚洲的地位。这份信心表明了中国领导阶层的两个关键判断。
By using direct armed pressure in these disputes, China makes its neighbors more eager for U.S. military support, and at the same time makes America less willing to give it, because of the clear risk of a direct U.S.-China clash. In other words, by confronting America's friends with force, China confronts America with the choice between deserting its friends and fighting China. Beijing is betting that, faced with this choice, America will back off and leave its allies and friends unsupported. This will weaken America's alliances and partnerships, undermine U.S. power in Asia, and enhance China's power.
通过在这些争端中使用直接的军事压力，中国使他的邻国对美国的支持更加渴望，同时也因为中美冲突的明显风险而使美国更不愿意提供支持。换句话来讲，通过用武力对抗美国的盟友，中国使美国面对抛弃盟友还是面对中国的选择困境。北京打赌美国在面对这些选择时肯定会抛弃他的盟友而不提供支持。这会削弱美国的同盟和伙伴关系，从而弱化美国在亚洲的力量，加强中国的力量。
点击图片进入下一页
This view of China's motives explains its recent conduct.
Ever since President Obama announced the "pivot," China has tested U.S. willingness to support its allies over the Scarborough Shoals andSenkaku/Daioyu disputes. Until his Asian trip last month, Obama seemed inclined to step back from America's commitments, but his bold words in Tokyoand Manila suggest he has recovered his resolve to stand firm.
对中国动机的观点解释了它最近的行动。
自从奥巴马总统宣布了"重返亚太战略"，中国就在斯卡伯勒浅滩(黄岩岛)和钓鱼岛测试了美国对支持其盟友的意愿。在奥巴马上月的亚洲行之前，他偏向于放下美国的承诺，但他在东京和马尼拉的讲话表明他恢复了站稳立场的决心。
Now we can expect China to test this newly-recovered resolve by applying more pressure in the same places or elsewhere. And that is what Beijing is doing today in the waters off Vietnam. It is calling Obama's bluff. Expect morepressure against Manila and Tokyo soon.
Of course this carries risks for China. It does not want to fight America, so it must be confident in the judgment that America will back down and desertits friends rather than engage in conflict with China, even if backing down badly weakens the U.S. position in Asia. This confidence reflects two key judgments by China's leaders.
现在，我们可以期望中国通过在同样的地方或别的地方施加压力来考验这个新恢复的决心。这就是北京最近在越南附近水域所做的事。
当然，这对中国有风险。中国不想与美国作斗争，所以，中国必须对自己的判断很有信心：美国必定会让步，抛弃他的盟友而不是与中国作斗争，即使让步会弱化美国在亚洲的地位。这份信心表明了中国领导阶层的两个关键判断。