A close friend of mine recently underwent tests for leukemia. The most agonizing part of the ordeal, she said, was the week-long wait for the test results. A bad outcome she could learn to cope with, my friend said. It was the not knowing, the uncertainty, that was so difficult.
我的一个好朋友最近接受了白血病测试。她对我说，最令人痛苦的折磨就是苦苦等待测试结果的那一周时间。我朋友说，她可能会学着直面坏结果。但真正让人煎熬焦虑的是那种茫然的感觉。
'People feel worse when something bad might occur than when something bad will occur,' wrote Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert in a recent New York Times op-ed. 'Most of us aren't losing sleep and sucking down Marlboros because the Dow is going to fall another thousand points, but because we don't know whether it will fall or not ─ and human beings find uncertainty more painful than the things they're uncertain about.'
孟克(Edvard Munch)的名画《呐喊》哈佛大学心理学家吉尔伯特(Daniel Gilbert)不久前在《纽约时报》(New York Times)的专栏中写道，不知道要发生什么坏事比知道什么坏事要发生的感觉更糟。我们大多数人之所以会夜不能寐、抽烟发泄，并不是因为道琼斯指数要再跌1000点，而是因为我们不知道道指会不会下跌──不确定的感觉比不确定的事情本身更折磨人。
Prof. Gilbert, for example, cites a study of people who had genetic tests to determine their risk of developing Huntington's disease, a neurodegenerative disorder. Those who learned they were likely to develop the condition were happier a year after testing than those who didn't learn what their risk was.
吉尔伯特举了一项研究作为例子。在这项研究中，研究对象接受了基因测试以判断他们患上亨丁顿舞蹈症(一种神经退化性紊乱疾病)的风险。在接受测试一年后，那些知道自己有可能患病的人反而要比那些不知道自己到底情况怎样的人更快乐。
Why are we so scared of the unknown? And why would we rather know, rather than merely suspect, that bad things will happen? When we know something bad is going to happen we may be sad for a bit. But then most people try to make the best of the situation, by changing their behaviors and attitudes. It's tough, however, 'to come to terms with circumstances whose terms we don't yet know,' writes Prof. Gilbert.
为什么不确定性如此令人惧怕?为什么我们情愿知道坏事肯定会发生，也不愿去猜测坏事会不会发生?当我们知道坏事肯定会发生的时候，我们可能会难过一阵子。但接下来，大多数人都会努力改变他们的行为或态度，尽可能的调整自己。吉尔伯特写道，但如果我们不知道要出现什么状况，那才真的令人煎熬。
Uncertainty, like death and taxes, is an unavoidable part of life, however. You or the kids may come down with mysterious ailments, deadlines for work are unpredictable, traffic snafus slow us down. A lot of expectant couples, especially those struggling with fertility issues, also deal with uncertainty each month as they wait to determine whether they are pregnant. All this means that we need to figure out how to cope with uncertainty─in part by accepting its very existence. There are simply things that we can't control, no matter how hard we try, so the trick is to stay flexible and positive.
但就像死亡和纳税一样，不确定性也是生命中不可避免的部分。你或孩子们可能会患上怪病，工作的最后期限也难以预见，会遇到交通障碍。很多想要孩子的夫妇，尤其是那些为生育问题苦恼的夫妇，在等待确定是否怀孕的时候，也每个月都会面临不确定性。这一切都意味着，我们需要找到如何应对不确定性的办法──办法之一就是接受现实。不管我们怎么努力，总会有我们无法控制的事情，因此就该想开点，随遇而安。
Readers, have you had experiences when you were on tenterhooks, struggling to deal with the unknown? How have you learned to cope with uncertainty?
读者们，你们是否有提心吊胆，惴惴不安的经历呢?你们又学会了怎么应对不确定性呢?
A close friend of mine recently underwent tests for leukemia. The most agonizing part of the ordeal, she said, was the week-long wait for the test results. A bad outcome she could learn to cope with, my friend said. It was the not knowing, the uncertainty, that was so difficult.
我的一个好朋友最近接受了白血病测试。她对我说，最令人痛苦的折磨就是苦苦等待测试结果的那一周时间。我朋友说，她可能会学着直面坏结果。但真正让人煎熬焦虑的是那种茫然的感觉。
'People feel worse when something bad might occur than when something bad will occur,' wrote Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert in a recent New York Times op-ed. 'Most of us aren't losing sleep and sucking down Marlboros because the Dow is going to fall another thousand points, but because we don't know whether it will fall or not ─ and human beings find uncertainty more painful than the things they're uncertain about.'
孟克(Edvard Munch)的名画《呐喊》哈佛大学心理学家吉尔伯特(Daniel Gilbert)不久前在《纽约时报》(New York Times)的专栏中写道，不知道要发生什么坏事比知道什么坏事要发生的感觉更糟。我们大多数人之所以会夜不能寐、抽烟发泄，并不是因为道琼斯指数要再跌1000点，而是因为我们不知道道指会不会下跌──不确定的感觉比不确定的事情本身更折磨人。
Prof. Gilbert, for example, cites a study of people who had genetic tests to determine their risk of developing Huntington's disease, a neurodegenerative disorder. Those who learned they were likely to develop the condition were happier a year after testing than those who didn't learn what their risk was.
吉尔伯特举了一项研究作为例子。在这项研究中，研究对象接受了基因测试以判断他们患上亨丁顿舞蹈症(一种神经退化性紊乱疾病)的风险。在接受测试一年后，那些知道自己有可能患病的人反而要比那些不知道自己到底情况怎样的人更快乐。
Why are we so scared of the unknown? And why would we rather know, rather than merely suspect, that bad things will happen? When we know something bad is going to happen we may be sad for a bit. But then most people try to make the best of the situation, by changing their behaviors and attitudes. It's tough, however, 'to come to terms with circumstances whose terms we don't yet know,' writes Prof. Gilbert.
为什么不确定性如此令人惧怕?为什么我们情愿知道坏事肯定会发生，也不愿去猜测坏事会不会发生?当我们知道坏事肯定会发生的时候，我们可能会难过一阵子。但接下来，大多数人都会努力改变他们的行为或态度，尽可能的调整自己。吉尔伯特写道，但如果我们不知道要出现什么状况，那才真的令人煎熬。
Uncertainty, like death and taxes, is an unavoidable part of life, however. You or the kids may come down with mysterious ailments, deadlines for work are unpredictable, traffic snafus slow us down. A lot of expectant couples, especially those struggling with fertility issues, also deal with uncertainty each month as they wait to determine whether they are pregnant. All this means that we need to figure out how to cope with uncertainty─in part by accepting its very existence. There are simply things that we can't control, no matter how hard we try, so the trick is to stay flexible and positive.
但就像死亡和纳税一样，不确定性也是生命中不可避免的部分。你或孩子们可能会患上怪病，工作的最后期限也难以预见，会遇到交通障碍。很多想要孩子的夫妇，尤其是那些为生育问题苦恼的夫妇，在等待确定是否怀孕的时候，也每个月都会面临不确定性。这一切都意味着，我们需要找到如何应对不确定性的办法──办法之一就是接受现实。不管我们怎么努力，总会有我们无法控制的事情，因此就该想开点，随遇而安。
Readers, have you had experiences when you were on tenterhooks, struggling to deal with the unknown? How have you learned to cope with uncertainty?
读者们，你们是否有提心吊胆，惴惴不安的经历呢?你们又学会了怎么应对不确定性呢?